### The Plan Ed, Where is the Plan?

.
It is a cliché that we cannot adopt our way out of killing in the shelter through adoptions. But it appears obvious to me you can’t spay/neuter your way out either.
.
For example, Boks has made no attempt to get a hold on the basic population dynamics of cats and dogs in Los Angeles.
.
How many housed cats are there? How many feral? Ditto dogs. Which area of LA are they? Does a feral cat in South Central have a higher mortality rate than the East Valley?
.
It is intuitively obvious that unless we S/N at least as many animals as coming in, there will be no decrease in the number of animals out there, and therefore no decrease in impounds. No decrease in impounds coupled with no way to adopt our way out, means no reduction in the killing.
.
But, even then how many spay/neuters are required to significantly reduce impounds? Two times the number of impounds, four times? Do we need more feral vouchers or more housed?
.
The number of cat and dog impounded is about 47,000 a year. Therefore, we’d need a minimum of 47,000 spay/neuters per year to hold even. Last year we were not even close to that.
.
Even then, we know one female cat can have 4-6 kittens per year or more, and maybe 3-4 of the ferals’ kittens can survive each year. Theoretically then—and check me on this—we need to spay/neuter at least 3 times as many cats and dogs as impounds, or about 140,000 for the first year before impounds decrease below what seems to be a fixed level of about 47,000 the next year. Of course I have not factored in the death rate, as I don't know what it is, just as Mr. Boks does not know what it is.

We have not done a fraction of that many S/N, nor will we until 2008/2009.

Then again, of the kittens from housed cats, what happens to them? Are a substabtial number brought in to LAAS for killing, or are those impounded the tip of the iceberg? I don't know, does Ed Boks know?
.
I asked Boks whether there was some way to temporarily increase space available during the kitten season. He said he was working on leasing space. Kitten season is almost here. What has he done? Is any space leased? Are the new shelters opening by April? Most were supposed to be open by now. Or, was the leasing just talk?
.
Has he included any help offered by rescue groups in his planning for temporary digs for thousands of cats and dogs? Anybody, anybody out there, has he consulted with you and asked your cooperation regarding temporary kitten season digs? I doubt it. He keeps his cards close to his chest.
.
An email was forwarded to me from the former head of the Sonoma County shelter system. He said the population dynamics of cats and dogs followed a 6 or 7 year cycle. Did Boks ever mention this to us? Did he know?
.
Evans offered his help—gratis—to Boks and LAAS, and Boks never bothered to respond by email or phone, even to reject it. Mr. Evans said that by the end of 90 days one should know enough about the lay of the land to expect a plan, a plan that would ever be changing as new situations arise; but where is Boks’ plan?

Mr. Evans said that the first three years of no kill efforts produced the greatest results, and this would explain Greenwalt’s and Stuckey’s relative success, and the low fruit of progress has already been picked. This could also explain Winograd’s success. He ran Ithaca’s shelters for 2-3 years, and then consults for one to two years until the low-hanging fruit is picked.
.
Evans said after that progress would be very slow, about 2-4% per year, unless a system gets about \$1 million dollars per 100,000 people; in LA, that would be over \$30 million, and even then, we cannot expect rapid improvement. Is this true? If so, the animals are screwed and Boks never told us it would be this difficult.
.
Ed, where is the plan? Can you tell me how many ferals are out there and in which sections of town? Can you tell me what resources LAAS has to spay/neuter at any shelter and can we transport animals for S/N to less crowded shelters and transport them back? Has he asked the rescue groups for help in this area?
.
Accountability Ed, who is responsible for no progress last year, you, LAAS staff, an irresponsible public, the 11 year sunspot cycle, Jupiter in Leo?
.
When can we expect a 50% increase in the live save rate? How is LAAS going to do it? Or, do you have no plan and you are just winging it?

#### 1 comment:

Anonymous said...

He needs to have his nokill plan in his annual report. People need to know that 2007 won't be a repeat of 2006. We need to see some progress. His six month report for 2007 needs to show some true leaps to nokill.

I sure hope he doesn't go blaming everyone else for his failure in 2006, but I bet he will.